Historical backtesting
Past profitable trades only, with the same fee-aware signal logic.
This page is historical only. It reruns the backtest over sampled Predexon-covered history using the selected capital and shows only trades with positive realized net PnL after fees, slippage, latency, and mismatch buffers.
Capital
$1,000.00
Portfolio capital limit applied to each simulated entry.
Pairs with history
3
Pairs that had enough sampled history on both venues.
Positive trades
6
Historical trades with positive realized net PnL.
Baseline net PnL
$208.65
Historical net PnL for the baseline run.
How To Read Backtest PnL
Gross spread
The raw arbitrage gap before any trading costs. This is the headline edge you would see if execution were free.
Fees and slippage
These are deducted from gross spread. They include modeled Polymarket fees, Kalshi fees, slippage, and hedge delay costs.
Net PnL
This is the number that matters. It is the estimated money the historical strategy would have made after all modeled execution costs.
Sensitivity runs
Same historical dataset, different slippage, delay, and similarity settings.
| Scenario | Similarity | Slippage | Delay | Trades | Net PnL | Win rate | Sharpe |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Baseline 95 / base slippage / 1s hedge Predexon Kalshi orderbook history from Jan 7, 2026 onward | 95+ | base | 1s | 6 | $208.65 | 100% | 12.04 |
Strict 97 / base slippage / 3s hedge Predexon Kalshi orderbook history from Jan 7, 2026 onward | 97+ | base | 3s | 6 | $208.65 | 100% | 12.04 |
Conservative 98 / high slippage / 5s hedge Predexon Kalshi orderbook history from Jan 7, 2026 onward | 98+ | high | 5s | 6 | $189.65 | 100% | 14.64 |
Fast 95 / low slippage / 0s hedge Predexon Kalshi orderbook history from Jan 7, 2026 onward | 95+ | low | 0s | 6 | $223.95 | 100% | 11.36 |
Positive historical trades
Only past trades with positive realized net PnL are shown here.
| Polymarket | Kalshi | Time | Sim | Direction | Ctrs | Capital | Gross | Fees | Slip + delay | Net edge | Net PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Will Gavin Newsom be the Democratic nominee for President in 2028? | 6/15/2026 | 98 | YES/NO | 160 | $116.08 | $46.40 | $2.48 | $6.40 | 23c | $37.52 |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Will Gavin Newsom be the Democratic nominee for President in 2028? | 6/19/2026 | 98 | YES/NO | 160 | $117.72 | $44.80 | $2.52 | $4.80 | 23c | $37.48 |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Will Gavin Newsom be the Democratic nominee for President in 2028? | 6/10/2026 | 98 | YES/NO | 150 | $108.86 | $43.50 | $2.36 | $4.50 | 24c | $36.64 |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Will Gavin Newsom be the Democratic nominee for President in 2028? | 5/31/2026 | 98 | YES/NO | 130 | $91.72 | $40.30 | $2.02 | $5.20 | 25c | $33.08 |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Will Gavin Newsom be the Democratic nominee for President in 2028? | 5/11/2026 | 98 | YES/NO | 100 | $63.45 | $38.00 | $1.45 | $4.00 | 32c | $32.55 |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Will Gavin Newsom be the Democratic nominee for President in 2028? | 5/21/2026 | 98 | YES/NO | 110 | $72.02 | $39.60 | $1.62 | $6.60 | 28c | $31.38 |