Live paper trading
Real-time paper monitor for current arbitrage opportunities.
This page simulates live trades without risking money. It updates automatically, uses the same pricing logic as the scanner, and separates open positions from closed paper trades so you can compare projected, unrealized, and realized PnL clearly.
Capital
$1,000.00
The paper trader sizes every live position using this amount.
Live opportunities
1
How many currently profitable live opportunities were evaluated.
Paper positions
1
Open and closed paper trades created from the live opportunity set.
Auto-refresh
15s
How often the live paper monitor refreshes by default.
How This Page Works
Step 1: Find live edge
The system scans exact Polymarket-Kalshi matches and keeps only directions that still look profitable after fees and execution buffers.
Step 2: Simulate fills
It estimates how many contracts could actually be filled from displayed orderbook depth and how much slippage those fills would cost.
Step 3: Track PnL
Open paper positions contribute unrealized PnL. Closed paper positions contribute realized PnL. Together they show whether the live strategy is matching the backtest.
Live refresh
This paper-trading monitor auto-refreshes from the live API so the odds, projected PnL, and open positions update regularly without reloading the page.
Last live update: 6/20/2026, 11:16:26 AM (0s ago)
Projected edge
$37.48
Projected paper-trading PnL if all current live positions closed exactly as modeled.
Realized PnL
$34.48
PnL from paper trades already modeled as closed.
Unrealized PnL
$0.00
PnL still tied to open paper positions that have not been closed yet.
Fill rate
4%
How much of the intended paper size the simulator believes could be filled.
How To Read Paper PnL
Projected PnL
The model's estimate for what this live opportunity would make after venue fees, slippage, latency, and mismatch buffers.
Realized PnL
The PnL on paper trades that the simulator has already marked as closed. This is the clearest forward-validation number.
Unrealized PnL
The mark-to-model value of still-open paper positions. It is informative, but less reliable than realized PnL because the trade is not closed yet.
Paper Table Column Guide
Trade setup
This spells out the exact paper arbitrage: which side to buy on Polymarket, which side to buy on Kalshi, and what the current lock cost is.
Contracts
Contracts is the number of shares the paper trader assumes it could fill at the displayed depth for this opportunity.
Net edge
Profit per contract after subtracting modeled fees and execution buffers from the gross arbitrage lock.
Projected
Expected PnL for the paper trade if it behaves exactly like the current model assumes.
Realized
PnL on paper trades already marked as closed. This is the most trustworthy forward-validation number.
Fees
Combined modeled Polymarket and Kalshi fees for that paper trade.
Buffers
Buffers are not just slippage. They combine slippage, hedge-delay cost, and mismatch protection, all of which reduce the gross lock.
Open paper positions
Current live paper-trading state only.
Closed paper positions
Current live paper-trading state only.
| Pair | Arbitrage trade | PM leg | Kalshi leg | Gross | PM fee | Kalshi fee | Buffers | Status | Contracts | Net edge | Projected | Realized | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Will Gavin Newsom be the Democratic nominee for President in 2028? 1h ago | Buy YES on Polymarket, buy NO on Kalshi Buy YES on Polymarket @ 38c, hedge with NO on Kalshi @ 34c. Cost 72c -> gross lock = 100c - 72c | YES 38c Depth 180 | NO 34c Depth 160 | 28c 100c - 72c | $0.00 | $2.52 | $4.80 | CLOSED | 160 4% fill | 23c | $37.48 | $34.48 | Paper position was modeled as closed after spread convergence. |
Rejected profitable rows
Current live paper-trading state only.