watchPredexon exactsimilarity 95Macro

Polymarket

Will the Fed cut rates by June 2026?

Predexon exact match.

Kalshi

Will the Federal Reserve cut rates at the June 2026 meeting?

Ticker kalshi-fed-cut-2026

Live signal

Current fee-aware opportunity

Jan 7, 2026 onward

Net edge

-6c / contract

Projected PnL

-$4.04

Liquidity

70

Fill ratio

93%

Quality notes

June cutoff semantics may diverge by meeting timing and target-rate wording.

Signal rationale

Manual review flag is active because settlement or expiry semantics differ.

Net edge does not clear the configured entry threshold.

Backtest attribution

baseline

$0.00

Baseline 95 / base slippage / 1s hedge

strict

$0.00

Strict 97 / base slippage / 3s hedge

conservative

$0.00

Conservative 98 / high slippage / 5s hedge

fast

$0.00

Fast 95 / low slippage / 0s hedge

Orderbook

Will the Fed cut rates by June 2026?

12:25:01 PM

Yes Ask

49c80 contracts

No Ask

52c65 contracts

Orderbook

Will the Federal Reserve cut rates at the June 2026 meeting?

12:25:37 PM

Yes Ask

53c70 contracts

No Ask

50c70 contracts