openPredexon exactsimilarity 98Politics

Polymarket

Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Predexon exact match.

Kalshi

Will Gavin Newsom be the Democratic nominee for President in 2028?

Ticker kalshi-newsom-2028

Live signal

Current fee-aware opportunity

Jan 7, 2026 onward

Net edge

24c / contract

Projected PnL

$18.32

Liquidity

160

Fill ratio

100%

Quality notes

Exact-match semantics align on nominee definition and cutoff.

Signal rationale

Signal clears the current gate without additional warnings.

Backtest attribution

baseline

$121.35

Baseline 95 / base slippage / 1s hedge

strict

$98.28

Strict 97 / base slippage / 3s hedge

conservative

$0.00

Conservative 98 / high slippage / 5s hedge

fast

$155.53

Fast 95 / low slippage / 0s hedge

Orderbook

Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

12:26:49 PM

Yes Ask

38c180 contracts

No Ask

63c190 contracts

Orderbook

Will Gavin Newsom be the Democratic nominee for President in 2028?

12:27:25 PM

Yes Ask

69c160 contracts

No Ask

34c160 contracts