openPredexon exactsimilarity 98Politics
Polymarket
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Predexon exact match.
Kalshi
Will Gavin Newsom be the Democratic nominee for President in 2028?
Ticker kalshi-newsom-2028
Live signal
Current fee-aware opportunity
Net edge
24c / contract
Projected PnL
$18.32
Liquidity
160
Fill ratio
100%
Quality notes
Exact-match semantics align on nominee definition and cutoff.
Signal rationale
Signal clears the current gate without additional warnings.
Backtest attribution
baseline
$121.35
Baseline 95 / base slippage / 1s hedge
strict
$98.28
Strict 97 / base slippage / 3s hedge
conservative
$0.00
Conservative 98 / high slippage / 5s hedge
fast
$155.53
Fast 95 / low slippage / 0s hedge
Orderbook
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
12:26:49 PM
Yes Ask
38c180 contracts
No Ask
63c190 contracts
Orderbook
Will Gavin Newsom be the Democratic nominee for President in 2028?
12:27:25 PM
Yes Ask
69c160 contracts
No Ask
34c160 contracts